Haringey returns to two-party politics as Lib Dem vote slumps


Just as the Fib Dems gather to celebrate 10 years of 'success' here in Haringey, new figures published in the last twenty-four hours have revealed the Lib Dems slumped into THIRD and FOURTH place in Tottenham (Hunter's home turf) in the May 1 London elections.

Electoral bigwigs have released the votes for London Mayor, GLA Constituency Member and London Top-Up List broken out by local authority ward. They make interesting reading.

Conservatives and Labour also beat them in *two out of three elections in Lynne's Hornsey and Wood Green Constituency. Yes, that's right THIRD. Labour actually topped the poll for the London List contest - staggering given Labour's poor organisation locally and unpopularity nationally. If the council elections been on the same day as the London elections, Conservatives would have taken all three seats in Highgate, whilst Labour would have gained Bounds Green, Crouch End, Harringay, Hornsey, Noel Park and Stroud Green from the Yellow Peril!

*when you take into account of postal votes.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

Justin-

As you know perfectly well, postal vote totals are only quoted by borough, so there's no way you can know how the Haringey postal votes split between Tottenham and H&WG. Quite possibly your conclusion is wrong.

Anonymous said...

It's not just possibly wrong, it is wrong.

"Conservatives and Labour also beat them in *two out of three elections in Lynne's Hornsey and Wood Green Constituency."
That is simply a lie. Lib Dems won on the constituency vote and came third on the mayoral vote. On the list they came second with 8552 votes to the Torys 6416. That's a lead of 2136. In Postal Votes (which are Haringey wide) the Tories have a lead of 1669 so even in your "best case scenario" whereby every single postal voter in Haringey is a Hornsey and Wood Green resident you would still lose out to the Lib Dems.

"Lib Dems slumped into THIRD and FOURTH place in Tottenham".
Whilst you attempt to use postal votes in your favour in your previous example, the only way you can justify this claim is to ignore postal votes completely. Even if you include a conservative (small c) estimate of just 2/5ths of postal votes as having come from Tottenham then the Lib Dems came third on the list vote as they did in the other 2 elections. So your claim that the Lib Dems came 4th is very dodgy indeed and only possible to make if you ignore your own methodology.

"If the council elections been (sic) on the same day as the London elections, Conservatives would have taken all three seats in Highgate, whilst Labour would have gained Bounds Green, Crouch End, Harringay, Hornsey, Noel Park and Stroud Green from the Yellow Peril!". Well no, they wouldn't. Only if every single person had voted exactly the same way in the council elections as they did for Mayor or as they did on the list. They wouldn't have. In fact if you wanted to use these elections as a guide for 2010 then you'd be better off using the constituency result as this tells you far more about who people want representing them locally. Of course that would see the Tories taking no seats yet again and coming a poor third yet again.

You are either being deliberately deceitful or you can't add up. As you went through Thatcher's educational system I assume it's the latter.

Justin Hinchcliffe said...

Gosh, where to start?

"Lib Dems won on the constituency vote and came third on the mayoral vote. On the list they came second with 8552 votes to the Torys (sic) 6416. That's a lead of 2136. In Postal Votes (which are Haringey wide) the Tories have a lead of 1669 so even in your "best case scenario" whereby every single postal voter in Haringey is a Hornsey and Wood Green resident you would still lose out to the Lib Dems"

My estimation is that roughly 2,500 of the Conservative PVs came from H&WG. That would take us up to 8,916. You WOULD, taking my mythology, has just beaten us - granted. But for a Party that has the majority of councillors and the MP to lose the Mayor vote to the Conservatives, the List vote to Labour and ALMOST come third on the constituency vote, behind the Conservatives who only polled 12% in 2006, is truly abysmal, don’t you think?

As for Tottenham, a constituency where you have two elected councillors, you went from second (2005, 2006) to third - behind us Conservatives. How do you explain that? As I said, on the List vote, you were even behind the Greens!

As for people not voting the same way for the Council as the Assembly, you say, "Only if every single person had voted exactly the same way in the council elections as they did for Mayor or as they did on the list. They wouldn't have". How do you know this? If people were prepared to vote Labour, despite all their difficulties nationally and almost non-existent organisation locally, you really are in trouble.

"In fact if you wanted to use these elections as a guide for 2010 then you'd be better off using the constituency result as this tells you far more about who people want representing them locally. Of course that would see the Tories taking no seats yet again and coming a poor third yet again" - that is utter crap. We would take Highgate (ahead in all three contests!) and may pick up a seat or two in Tottenham. You, in contrast, would see a decrease in your councillor tally and third, overall, in Tottenham. How can you possibly hope to take control of Haringey Council when you would have lost you two councillors in Harringay and three in H'gate?

I am not going to take advice from some gutless bastard of a Lib Dems who hasn't even got the courtesy to add his or her name to the post (hello, Matty boy or 'Dr' Pack?).

And I'm also not going to take advice from the Lib Dems on election results, statistics or bar charts. For example, you dismiss your appalling Mayoral result across Haringey (indeed London), but you'd be crowing to the rafters had you won. Hypocrites, liars, charlatans, opportunists and nasty - these are the words to describe local Lib Dems.

David Allen said...

Boys, Boys, play nicely now! We can slice and dice the figures til kingdom come, but the truth of the matter is that
- 'Tory' is no longer a toxic brand,
- the Conservative party is resurgent both in London and nationally
- the Libdems have failed to make any break-thru nationally or in London, despite their 2 changes of leader
- David Cameron impresses voters
- Nick Clegg does not impress voters (and will impress them even less now that we know he took £7,000 of public money to do up his house in Sheffield (Hope the curtains were worth it, Nick!)
- the Libdem success local to H&WG, such as it is, is entirely based upon a Lynne Featherstone personality cult, funded, at least in the early years, by her own money. I don't think they will ever break thru and capture Haringey Council from Labour, and they will implode the moment Lynne retires.

Anonymous said...

There's spin and then there is lying:

"We would take Highgate (ahead in all three contests!)"
Constituency votes in Highgate
Lib Dem 1168
Tory 967
LIE

"My estimation is that roughly 2,500 of the Conservative PVs came from H&WG. That would take us up to 8,916"
So you think the PVs split as follows?:
2,500 from H&WG
38 from Tottenham
Whereas the Lib Dem PVs split:
363 from H&WG
1503 from Tottenham
Not very likely now is it?

Justin Hinchcliffe said...

Highgate:

Con 1332, Lab 1229, LD 470 (Mayoralty)

Con 980, LD 927, Lab 622
(List)

LD 1168, Con 969, Lab 603
(Constituency)

Again, these do not include PVs.

We know where our PVs come from (-:

Anonymous said...

Given all the Conservatives' allegations about Liberal Democrat use of figures elsewhere on your blog, this really does take the biscuit.

So let's get this straight. You admit that:
* The Liberal Democrats won Hornsey and Wood Green parliamentary constituency on the Constiuency vote (with Tories in third); and that
* The Liberal Democrats probably came second (to Labour) on the List vote in the same constituency.

Given that in Hornsey and Wood Green the Tories came third in every election except the Mayoral vote (where you came second), on what deluded little planet do you conclude that this now means Hornsey and Wood Green is a Labour v. Tory two horse race?

Justin Hinchcliffe said...

Because you lost two out of the three votes. Conservative and Labour both up at your expense.

I note that you have given up arguing about Tottenham, where you feel from second to third and fourth place.

Justin Hinchcliffe said...

fell

Cllr Matt Davies said...

I never post anonymous blog comments.

I will at some point do my own blog post with an accurate analysis of the local results tho :)

Anonymous said...

"Because you lost two out of the three votes. Conservative and Labour both up at your expense."

Ermm, how can it be the "return of two party politics" if people are still prepared to vote Liberal Democrat in large numbers?

All that can be said about the GLA result locally for the Tories is that people liked Boris Johnson and so were willing to vote for him as a person. The fact that the Conservatives came third in everything except the Mayoral race really puts paid to your bizarre claim that you have a hope of challenging for the parliamentary seat.

Anonymous said...

And you've still lied about Highgate. You're asuming all Tory Postal Voters live in Highgate and that none of the Lib Dems do.

Anonymous said...

If that had been true then maybe you wouldn't have been so utterly trounced in the by-election!

Justin Hinchcliffe said...

Look, anon, we know where the majority of our PVs come from (three wards, of which H'gate is one!).

I think you will find that even in the by-election we were ahead in the PVs.

As for, "All that can be said about the GLA result locally for the Tories is that people liked Boris Johnson and so were willing to vote for him as a person" - excuse me, but what evidence to you have for this?

The Conservative vote -- even in Alex -- was over 850 votes! You have to go back to the early nineties to see such a high Tory vote there. Of course, most of you have no knowledge of Haringey or election results here, as you're all outsiders who have moved here to line your pockets.

Hiding behind anonymity says more about you than it does for me.

Anonymous said...

Well I'm some of these anons but not others - looks like you have many critics!
I understand the Tories didn't go to any of the postal vote openings for Highgate so I have no idea where you get your latest "fact" from.
Why don't you juat admit that you have been guilty of 5 mistruths and set the record straight:

H&WG
Constituency
1 LD
2 Lab
3 Tory
List
1 Lab
2 LD
3 Tory
Mayor
1 Lab
2 Tory
3 LD

Tottenham
Constituency
1 Lab
2 Tory
3 LD
List
1 Lab
2 Tory
3 Green or LD (impossible to say)
Mayor
1 Lab
2 Tory
3 LD

Highgate LD in all 3 votes.

Oh and I was originally just an anon because I couldn't be bothered to get a blogger ID to post but seeing how much it annoys you I think I'll keep it.

Anonymous said...

You can't "know" where the majority of "your" postal votes come from Justin, you can only infer.

You do not have enough solid information to back up your assertions.

Justin Hinchcliffe said...

Leave your personal attacks to one side and just look at the figures:

H&WG -
LDs First (Constituency)
LDs Second (List)
LDS Third (Mayoralty)

This means you only won one out of the three contests, both to Labour, no?

Tottenham -
Lab First, Con Second, Green Third, LD Fourth(List)
Lab First, Con Second, LD Third, GR Fourth (Constituency)
Lab First, Con Second, LD Third, GR Fourth (Mayoralty)

Highate -
Con First (Mayoralty)
Con First (List)
LDs *First (Constituency)

PVs not included.

THESE ARE FACTS, NOT LIES.

What do you disagree with?

Justin Hinchcliffe said...

"You do not have enough solid information to back up your assertions"

Err, yes we do.

Anonymous said...

Any fair reading of the results in Haringey would conclude that the Lib Dems look likely to hold on to Hornsey & Wood Green, given that they won the list vote. They wouldn't be expected to win either the mayoral or constituency member votes as in both contests, given the Lib Dems had no chance of victory, many Lib Dem supporters would have voted for someone else.

In Tottenham the results do suggest that maybe the Conservatives could narrowly regain their second place, but Labour remain miles ahead and look set to retain well over 50% of the vote.

Justin Hinchcliffe said...

I think you're more than a little confused (or at least your supporters are), anon.

It would have better to have topped the List, not the Constituency poll to get LDs elected.

Anonymous said...

Well you've just admitted there that your statement on your front page ("Conservatives AND Labour also beat them in two out of three elections" in H+WG) is false - for you've just admitted that the Tories came third in the Constituency vote and third on the List.

Who's confused?

Anonymous said...

www.ukpollingreport.com

April 26th, 2008

Justin Hinchcliffe (not registered)

"Given that we're 10% ahead in most polls, I think heads will roll if we don't win this seat. I predict that it will be won or lost by fewer than 500 votes. A lot will depend on the two parties getting their vote out on the day."

So which heads rolled?

Seriously how could you lose a seat where there were over 10,000 UKIP voters there for you to pick up?

Anonymous said...

I think Labour probably made more of an effort in the GLA seat this time having neglected it with almost disasterous consequences in 2004. The Tories will never find it easy to win Enfield and Haringey because it contains 3 constituencies (Edmonton, Tottenham and H&WG) where the Tories are basically dead. They would need to perform extremely well in Southgate and Enfield North to overcome that handicap.

You're right about Justin's predictions though - they're crap.

Norfolk Blogger said...

Justin, these results mean nothing.

In 1999 we came fourth in north norfolk in the Euros and two years later took the MP off the tories.